Sounds nice BUT ‘our opinions’? Rigorous questioning is how a solid foundation is formed, a foundation from which the next steps can be taken. You and I obviously have a different level of comfort in the replication that’s gone on, which is fine. But we should never say that we have access to fact, when all we have access to is consensus. After all, what are the chances all those people were all wrong? Has there been any attempt to amalgamate those into some “consensus view”? These "expert consensuses" are not passive but have actively suppressed, delayed, censored or ignored contrary evidence which has later shown itself to be correct. Consensus reality is that which is generally agreed to be reality, based on a consensus view.. If it’s consensus, it isn’t science. I used the example of the Iraq War as a classic example that expert consensuses do not mean that anything is there, and in my view Bush threw caution to the wind, when caution and waiting for solid fact would have been better. During their teens, kids look to other kids for their cues on how to talk, dress and act. Society at large is more consensus-oriented. Is there not consensus on E=mc2? Here are some interesting examples – two from Enron showing how fragile a "consensus" can be, one from a geologist surveyed in one of the surveys supposedly showing a consensus among scientists. Another characteristic of functionalism is that it is wary of fast social change. When there is a consensus that it’s the time to buy stocks, smart money is usually heading for the exits. There is no shortage of other examples. It was known that Iraq had had and used chemical weapons, and that they’d shown interest in biological and nuclear weapons. The outlier view is that the vaccine confers some unmeasurable risk of autism. To see scientists fall to a power play is sad (though far from unheard of). After applying Redundancy theorem we can write only the terms containing complemented variables (i.e, C) and omit the Redundancy term i.e., AB..'. You don’t like political interference in science? It certainly under girds a significant body of work and some powerful evidence. Link. Would you like Weekly Updates? And unlike Mr. Fleck, I don’t think Crichton’s words stray that far from what Kuhn was saying — or from what science history tells us. I stumbled into what I’m doing now when Mann said that he had forgotten where MBH98 data was and Rutherford said that it didn’t exist in any one place. When there is a set of explanations that we hold in our heads that we build machines out of and deeply trust, explanations such as “e=mc^s,” we can call that a black box. While I’ve opined about MBH, IMHO the work of Jones, Briffa, Crowley etc. The consensus of scientists said it was infectious, and what was necessary was to find the “pellagra germ.” The US government asked a brilliant young investigator, Dr. Joseph Goldberger, to find the cause. The deeper implication here is that testing, debate and conflict are essential if any field of science is to get anywhere. Unquestioning conformity (or mindless consensus if you must) is the goal of power. Period. While I fully understand the definitions of and differences between the two, I am finding great difficulty in trying to apply them to a social situation as we have been asked to do. Learn how your comment data is processed. As John’s extract from Crichton elabaorates, scientific consensus is not science, sensu strictu but politics. 19 Examples of Chaos Theory posted by John Spacey, September 28, 2019. This system includes a child’s parents and family, school, peer group, neighborhood, etc. I innocently assumed that audit-type or engineering-type replications would be standard in science before being applied to policy, little realizing that attempting to apply such a standard would itself end up becoming a story in itself. But in the climate field, and for multiproxy work in particular, I am really struck by the extaordinary prevalence of defects in the work of the most influential authors. There were questions on climate change…emissions, etc. While admitting no specialist expertise in climate, he relegates most of climate as “junk science”. The following are illustrative examples. The consensus remained wedded to the germ theory. Please tell us all what a consensus of anything means in the absence of cold, hard, evidence that has been checked and audited and replicated. But the issues remain: science is subject to the forces of society, including the political apparatus that operates with and without the findings of science (or evidence, or reason, for that matter). With respect to science, the assumption behind the [alarmist] consensus is science is the source of authority and that authority increases with the number of scientists [who agree.] John English: I have to disagree with your assertion that “Crichton’s opinions are reiterating … Thomas Kuhn.” I think quite the opposite. Only when Marxist, anarchist and racialist theories began to develop in the middle of the 19th century did notions of conflict replace those of consen… The problem is that a pair of measured values, determined in samples selected at positions with different coordinates, defines an infinite set of distance-weighted averages AKA kriged estimates, a zero pseudo kriging variance, and zip degrees of freedom. Or do you follow the Crichton/Iraq example, and assume they must be wrong and do the opposite? Most civilians assume that IPCC carries out engineering-quality due diligence rather than this type of negotiation. was wrong about continental drift. It is a particularly effective approach of inquiry and analysis. I really don’t see how the corpus of present multiproxy work can be used to develop a valid scientific “consensus”. I am sure every scientist involved has his or her own subjective probability distribution over the potential outcomes. First, just share with people whose behavior you’re trying to influence how lots of other people are already doing what you’re asking them to do. It does not make sense to me to disregard what experts are telling us, providing that the evidence presented has be tested and replicated. Enter Your Email Below! Fastow was obviously as creative and sharp as Lay and Enron’s board of directors had come to believe” (p. 267). The examples can be multiplied endlessly. (Well aimed Exocet for the wrong reasons). I suspect agreement was derived by rule of authority. Consensus is a condition that is both a necessity to the foundation of any field of science shared by more than one scientist and a contingency that should be revisable when evidence suggests as such. THAT is what Crichton meant by consensus science. Writers such as Plato and Rousseau had stressed means of avoiding conflict by creating the ingredients for consensus. The consensus said no. What great cause would have been fought and won under the banner ‘I stand for consensus’?”, “¢’¬? ), The next morning just after ten, Skilling stood beside Lay as a photographer snapped their pictures for an article in Fortune. These issues have debated under the term “evidence-based medicine”. Consensus an a narrow sub-discipline of one area of research (maize genetics, say) and consensus on the broadest cross-cutting quesiton ever encountered in the history of science (AGW) are two different things entirely. Whether big or small, conflict is not confined only to a person and the people around her/him. I happen to believe asking the smartest people we can find for their consensus view remains a good choice, which is why we do it all the time. Therefore, all foreign groups who’d looked into the situation came to the conclusion that there still such weapons and a grave threat that left alone Saddam would try to get more. That’s what’s so bizarre about Crichton’s attempt at explaining how science works, and what’s so frustrating when I see people repeatedly quoting him approvingly whenever mainstream science arrives at a consensus they don’t like. Around 53% of people agreedto … All wrong. I mean, how long did it take before the schools of oceanography and climatology were finally merged? I would ask you, John: when you face a medical decision, do you attempt to see what the bulk of experts in the field say should be done and then follow that course of action? The second is negotiated ( like Kyoto )and is likely to be a compromise between competing points of view. Goldberger concluded that diet was the crucial factor. This doesn’t mean that any conclusions of the IPCC are wrong, but just that the isntitutional biases of this type of program shouldn’t surprise anyone. The theory includes aspects of division of labor,rational system , bureaucracy theory and contingency theory with each of the aspects of improving output and efficiency. Occasionally, one turns out to be right, and the consensus is modified or overturned. If not, does it matter how many scientists believe it? F = AB + BC' + AC. It’s a consensus of explanations. According to Kuhn, normal science “is predicated on the assumption that the scientific community knows what the world is like”…”normal science often suppresses fundamental novelties because they are necessarily subversive of its basic commitments.” Paradigm-based research is “an attempt to force nature into the preformed and relatively inflexible box that the paradigm supplies.” Kuhn adds that most scientists are engaged in mop-up operations, much of which is intended to stifle dissent for the prevailing paradigm. But that’s not the sort of situation Crichton’s talking about. Experiment is our only gateway to fact. Goldberger demonstrated that he could induce the disease through diet. You haven’t convinced me, and I still think the balance of the evidence weighs against you, but I still come back here regularly to read your stuff, because I think you’re raising important questions that need to be sorted out. The promotion of a scientific consensus in the absence of hard facts which are not in dispute or repeatable experiments deisgned to falsify propositions are not science at all, but political constructs whose purpose is suppression of knowledge and censorship of contrary evidence. I would ask you, John: when you face a medical decision, do you attempt to see what the bulk of experts in the field say should be done and then follow that course of action? The consensus of scientists said it was infectious, and what was necessary was to find the “pellagra germ.” The US government asked a brilliant young investigator, Dr. Joseph Goldberger, to find the cause. This is the speech which fostered the quote: 1. I think believers in the consensus view (and I count myself among them) who reflexively ignore the arguments you’re raising do so at their own peril. Westerville, OH 43081, https://www.influencepeople.biz/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/logo.png. But science is not primarily a source of authority. We face this dilemma in all walks of life. The role of scientists is to locate uncertainties and identify and work through problems. He found the table of contents, looking for Fastow’s name. A consensus theory approach sees sport as a source of collective harmony, a way of binding people together in a shared experience. What does CONSENSUS THEORY mean? … Climate Alarm- Where Does It Come From? Lay turned to the article, “When Andrew S Fastow, the 37-year old CFO of Enron Corp. boasts that “our story is one of a kind’ he’s not kidding" it began”. This is the only road to progress in a field. Attribution theory is concerned with how ordinary people explain the causes of behavior and events. It was a consensus of "experts" that said that Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, chemical, biological and possibly nuclear. The consensus remained wedded to the germ theory. 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